| 31 | 0 | 23 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
科学评估黄河下游小城镇韧性水平,对于推动黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展具有重要意义。以山东省沿黄九市小城镇为对象,构建评价指标体系测度2010—2021年小城镇韧性水平,运用泰尔指数、空间自相关、多层线性模型等方法,探究小城镇韧性时空格局演变与影响因素,得到如下主要结果。1)小城镇韧性水平呈逐步上升趋势,生态韧性对小城镇韧性提升贡献较大;韧性整体差距始终较小,经济韧性差距与波动较大,是影响小城镇韧性差距的关键因素。2)小城镇韧性呈“东高西低、北高南低”的空间格局,在中心城市周边由内到外圈层式递减,主要交通线及都市圈等区域发展战略对小城镇韧性具有带动作用。3)小城镇韧性集聚特征明显,高-高集聚区形成了“淄博—滨州—东营”高韧性集聚带,低-低集聚区有所收缩。4)小城镇韧性受自身及所在县(区、市)因素的共同影响:小城镇层次,政策支持、土地利用强度与区位条件是主要影响因素;县(区、市)层次,产业结构高级化水平、经济发展水平与固定资产投资等因素也会产生重要影响。研究结果有助于丰富小城镇韧性研究的理论框架,并为黄河下游小城镇韧性建设提供科学依据和实践参考。
Abstract：Scientific assessment of the resilience level of small towns in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is of great significance for advancing ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.Taking small towns in nine cities along the Yellow River in Shandong Province as the research object,this study constructed an evaluation index system to measure the resilience level of small towns during the period from 2010 to 2021,and employed methods including the Theil index,spatial autocorrelation,and hierarchical linear model to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of small town resilience.The results are shown as follows.1) The overall resilience of small towns showed a gradual upward trend,and ecological resilience made a significant contribution to enhancing the overall resilience of small towns.The gap in overall resilience remained relatively small during the study period,while the gap and fluctuation in economic resilience were relatively large,making it the key factor affecting the overall resilience disparity among small towns.2) The resilience of small towns exhibited a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south",and showed a circular decreasing trend from the inside to the outside around central cities.Major regional development strategies such as the construction of main transportation lines and metropolitan area development had a driving effect on the resilience of small towns.3)The resilience of small towns showed obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.A "Zibo-Binzhou-Dongying" high-resilience agglomeration belt was formed in high-high(H-H) agglomeration areas,while low-low(L-L)agglomeration areas shrank to a certain extent over the study period.4) The resilience of small towns was jointly affected by factors at both the small town level and the county(district,county-level city) level where they were located.At the small town level,policy support,land use intensity,and locational conditions were the main influencing factors;at the county(district,county-level city) level,factors such as the advanced level of industrial structure,economic development level,and fixed asset investment also exerted important impacts.The findings of this study help enrich the theoretical framework of small town resilience research,and provide scientific basis and practical reference for the resilience construction of small towns in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.
[1]王梦婧,王建锋,戴承霖,等.基于土地利用覆被变化的城市生境网络时空演变特征及韧性评估:以黄河下游平原城市为例[J].生态学报,2026,46(1):476-489.Wang Mengjing,Wang Jianfeng,Dai Chenglin,et al.Spatial and temporal evolution and resilience assessment of urban habitat network based on land use and cover change:a case study of city in the lower Yellow River Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2026,46(1):476-489.
[2]佘丽敏,袁程程,李晓建.黄河流域(山东段)生态环境与农业耦合协调和高质量发展提升策略[J].规划师,2024,40(2):129-136.She Limin,Yuan Chengcheng,Li Xiaojian.Coupling coordination and high-quality development strategies of ecological environment and agricultural development in the Yellow River basin(Shandong section)[J].Planners,2024,40(2):129-136.
[3]刘铭秋.深度城市化进程中的空间复兴:小城镇建设的再出发[J].理论与改革,2025(2):145-156.Liu Mingqiu.Spatial revival in the deep urbanization process:the rebirth of small town construction[J].Theory and Reform,2025(2):145-156.
[4]张亚飞,马妍,祖振旗.基于生态安全的黄河下游小城镇发展策略探索:以长垣市魏庄街道为例[J].小城镇建设,2021,39(5):104-113.Zhang Yafei,Ma Yan,Zu Zhenqi.Exploration on the development strategy of small towns in the downstream of the Yellow River for ecological security:a case study of Weizhuang subdistrict in Changyuan[J].Development of Small Cities&Towns,2021,39(5):104-113.
[5]赵瑞东,方创琳,刘海猛.城市韧性研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,2020,39(10):1717-1731.Zhao Ruidong,Fang Chuanglin,Liu Haimeng.Progress and prospect of urban resilience research[J].Progress in Geography,2020,39(10):1717-1731.
[6]石龙宇,郑巧雅,杨萌,等.城市韧性概念、影响因素及其评估研究进展[J].生态学报,2022,42(14):6016-6029.Shi Longyu,Zheng Qiaoya,Yang Meng,et al.A review of definitions,influence factors and assessment of urban resilience[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2022,42(14):6016-6029.
[7]李翅,马鑫雨,夏晴.国内外韧性城市的研究对黄河滩区空间规划的启示[J].城市发展研究,2020,27(2):54-61.Li Chi,Ma Xinyu,Xia Qing.The study of resilient cities in domestic and overseas and the implications to the spatial planning of Yellow River floodplain area[J].Urban Development Studies,2020,27(2):54-61.
[8]王松茂,宁文萍,牛金兰,等.黄河流域城市生态韧性时空分异及收敛研究:基于七大城市群61个城市的实证分析[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(1):93-103.Wang Songmao,Ning Wenping,Niu Jinlan,et al.Spatiotemporal differentiation and convergence of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River basin:an empirical analysis based on 61 cities in seven major urban agglomerations[J].Arid Land Geography,2024,47(1):93-103.
[9]Birchall S J,Villeneuve K,Rose D,et al.Exploring the modifying effects of adaptive capacity on resilience to climate change across 4 coastal cities in British Columbia,Canada[J].Cities,2026,169:106559.
[10]陈有川,张延奇,段文婷,等.基于多源数据的省域县城韧性发展水平评价研究:以山东省为例[J].城市发展研究,2024,31(11):18-23.Chen Yongchuan,Zhang Yanqi,Duan Wenting,et al.An evaluation of county resilience development levels at the provincial level utilizing multi-source data:a case study of Shandong Province[J].Urban Development Studies,2024,31(11):18-23.
[11]张伟,修春亮,张燕.基于PSR框架与多源数据融合的沿海城市韧性演变、差异及阻碍:以大连市为例[J].海洋通报,2026,45(1):85-99.Zhang W ei,Xiu Chunliang,Zhang Yan.Evolution,differences,and obstacles of resilience in coastal cities based on the PSR framework and multi-source data fusion:a case study of Dalian[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2026,45(1):85-99.
[12]王云,刘希宏,刘毅.粤港澳大湾区城市韧性时空演化及影响因素研究[J].地理研究,2025,44(11):3025-3046.Wang Yun,Liu Xihong,Liu Yi.Spatiotemporal evolution and influence mechanisms of urban resilience in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J].Geographical Research,2025,44(11):3025-3046.
[13]陈晓红,娄金男,王颖.哈长城市群城市韧性的时空格局演变及动态模拟研究[J].地理科学,2020,4 0(12):2000-2009.Chen Xiaohong,Lou Jinnan,Wang Ying.Evolution and dynamic simulation of the temporal-spatial pattern of urban resilience in Harbin-Changchun urban group[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2020,40(12):2000-2009.
[14]张筱娟,汤琪凤,张镇.黄河流域城市韧性空间分异特征及其影响因素识别[J].地域研究与开发,2022,41(6):48-54.Zhang Xiaojuan,Tang Qifeng,Zhang Zhen.Spatial differentiation characteristics and its influencing factors ofurban resilience in the Yellow River basin[J].A real Research and Development,2022,41(6):48-54.
[15]管青春,周旭,刘黎明,等.1990—2023年黄河三角洲生态系统韧性演变特征及其突变机制[J].生态学报,2026,46(2):721-741.Guan Qingchun,Zhou Xu,Liu Liming,et al.Evolution characteristics and catastrophe mechanisms of ecosystem resilience in the Yellow River Delta from1990 to 2023[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2026,46(2):721-741.
[16]李连刚,张平宇,程钰,等.黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究[J].地理科学,2022,42(4):557-567.Li Liangang,Zhang Pingyu,Cheng Yu,et al.Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of economic resilience in the Yellow River basin[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2022,42(4):557-567.
[17]王慧丽,李妞,刘英,等.黄河流域水资源-生态韧性动态耦合与级层障碍解析[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(3):569-580.Wang Huili,Li Niu,Liu Ying,et al.Dynamic coupling and hierarchical obstacle analysis of water resources and ecological resilience in the Yellow River basin[J].Arid Land Geography,2026,49(3):569-580.
[18]郑皓,秦瑜,邱德华.苏南旅游小城镇“三生”空间韧性评价[J].现代城市研究,2023(7):17-23.Zheng Hao,Qin Yu,Qiu Dehua.Resilience evaluation of production-living-ecology space of tourist towns in southern Jiangsu[J].Modern Urban Research,2023(7):17-23.
[19]舒瑞瑶,王方,张奇智.韧性城市视角下的小城镇地下空间防灾韧性评估研究:以安徽绩溪县为例[J].建筑与文化,2022(3):128-129.Shu Ruiyao,Wang Fang,Zhang Qizhi.Resilience assessment of underground space disaster prevention in small towns from the perspective of resilient city:a case study of Jixi County,Anhui Province[J].Architecture&Culture,2022(3):128-129.
[20]唐永,李小建,娄帆,等.快速城镇化背景下中国小城镇时空演变及影响因素[J].经济地理,2022,42(3):66-75.Tang Yong,Li Xiaojian,Lou Fan,et al.Spatio-temporal evolution of towns in China under the background of rapid urbanization[J].Economic Geography,2022,42(3):66-75.
[21]Wu Yizhen,Shi Kaifang,Chen Zuoqi,et al.Developing improved time-series DMSP-OLS-like data(1992—2019)in China by integrating DMSP-OLS and SNPP-VIIRS[J].IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing,2022,60:1-14.
[22]Chen Jiandong,Gao Ming,Cheng Shulei,et al.Global1 km×1 km gridded revised real gross domestic product and electricity consumption during 1992-2019 based on calibrated nighttime light data[J].Scientific Data,2022,9:202.
[23]Wei Jing,Li Zhanqing,Lyapustin A,et al.Reconstructing1-km-resolution high-quality PM_(2.5)data records from2000 to 2018 in China:spatiotemporal variations and policy implications[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2021,252:112136.
[24]Peng Shouzhang,Ding Yongxia,Wen Zhongming,et al.Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011-2100[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2017,233:183-194.
[25]张鹏,于伟,张延伟.山东省城市韧性的时空分异及其影响因素[J].城市问题,2018(9):27-34.Zhang Peng,Yu Wei,Zhang Yanwei.Spatial-temporal differentiation and its influencing factors of Shandong Province's urban resilience[J].Urban Problems,2018(9):27-34.
[26]朱媛媛,杨千龙,朱晓华,等.中国城乡居民福祉水平演变及影响因素[J].地理学报,2025,80(8):2109-2127.Zhu Yuanyuan,Yang Qianlong,Zhu Xiaohua,et al.Evolution and influencing factors of the well-being level of urban and rural residents in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2025,80(8):2109-2127.
[27]耿虹,时二鹏,王立舟,等.基于GIS-DEA的大城市周边小城镇发展效率评价:以武汉为例[J].经济地理,2018,38(10):72-79.Geng Hong,Shi Erpeng,Wang Lizhou,et al.Evaluation of the development efficiency of small towns around metropolis based on GIS-DEA:taking Wuhan as an example[J].Economic Geography,2018,38(10):72-79.
[28]尹德挺,赵国立,张歆越.都市圈人口分布的圈层结构研究[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2024,39(6):166-182.Yin Deting,Zhao Guoli,Zhang Xinyue.A study on the circle structure of population distribution in metropolitan areas[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2024,39(6):166-182.
[29]胡晓亮,张小林,李红波,等.基于尺度重组的发达国家小城镇转型发展研究综述与反思[J].地理科学进展,2023,42(4):796-808.Hu Xiaoliang,Zhang Xiaolin,Li Hongbo,et al.Transformation and development of small towns in developedcountries from the perspective of rescaling[J].Progress in Geography,2023,42(4):796-808.
基本信息:
中图分类号:X321;F299.27
引用信息:
[1]李洋涛,杨志恒,吴先华,等.黄河下游小城镇韧性时空格局演变与影响因素——以山东省沿黄九市小城镇为例[J].鲁东大学学报(自然科学版)().
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52478063); 山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020MD012); 山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)(2025RZB0710)
2026-10-30
2026-10-30
2026-10-30